Immigration was a key debate during the referendum. It continues to be a major factor in any possible deal. Although each party has a separate stance, we analyse the Boris Johnson proposed deal and effects on immigration.
The UK in Changing Europe released their economic findings on what the new ‘Boris’ deal would mean for the UK Economy. The report was headed by Professor Anand Menon. In this article we are going to look at the findings and impacts of the report.
Freedom of Movement is due to end once the deal to leave is agreed by parliament. Therefore, EU citizens are no longer to be differentiated from non-EU citizens. Boris Johnson has not outlined his approach on immigration policy but is currently investigating an ‘Australian style points system’. The early indicators point towards a liberal approach to migration. However, Prof. Menon modeled both ‘restrictive’ and ‘liberal’ scenarios.
The body of research has built these two scenarios on certain assumptions. The restrictive scenario is built around the predicate that immigration of EU migrants earning more than £30,000 will reduce by 50% and those earning less by 75%. There is also an assumption of non-EU immigration of those earning more to increase by 25%. However, the liberal scenario is based on a reduction of those earning £30,000 or more to reduce by one third and those under that bracket by two thirds. There would be an increase in the numbers of non-EU migrants, with a 50% increase in those earning over £30,000 and a 10% increase in those earning less.
These assumptions are based on the premise that migration flows would be similar to those in the recent past. Therefore, this outlines impact on the UK workforce.
The restrictive scenario shows a reduction in the UK workforce over the next 10 years of 550,000 working people. This would translate to a reduction of GDP of between 1.4% and 2%.
The more liberal scenario highlights a smaller reduction in the workforce of 366,000 working people. Therefore a reduction of GDP of 0.6%.
There are other clear factors that should be taken into consideration. This includes productivity, Professor Menon highlights a report by the UK’s Migration Advisory Committee. They concluded that immigration has a positive effect to UK productivity. Professor Menon uses this to assume there would be a further hit to GDP given the productivity impacts. He claims that this is a ‘relatively conservative’ figure. However highlights the ‘uncertainty’ around this assumption. For his restrictive scenario he outlines a further 0.4% reduction and for his liberal scenario he outlines a reduction of 0.2%.
He outlined that although the restrictive scenario would have a negative output for GDP per capita, that the liberal could have a positive effect (particularly without the productivity impacts) per capita.
What Professor Menon concludes is that policy choices are essential to mitigate the impacts of Brexit.
What does this mean for you?
Here at Farani Taylor Solicitors we intend to be at the forefront; helping those that would like to work, invest or study in the UK to continue to do so. We intend to critique the immigration process and ensure that the Home Office are held to account.
We endeavor to provide the very best advice to clients and ensure that we continue to enjoy the cultural and economic advantages of having diverse immigration. Whether the government decide to have a restrictive or liberal approach, our process remains the same. By continuing to provide excellent advice and promote the benefits of the UK to businesses across the globe.